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Unusually for a large UN climate conference, the didn’t finish with any late-night haggling. Progress, in the form of various commitments and pledges, is best described as .

Ahead of the conference, we made five suggestions of . They were: ditch fossil fuels entirely, pledge more aggressive emissions cuts, a big increase in climate funds for developing countries, rapid agreement on rules for implementing the Paris Agreement and that “fantasy technologies” that take carbon out of the atmosphere would be exposed as wishful thinking.

We’ll look at how the conference did against our five proposed metrics, discuss “what next” for the UN’s climate process ahead of next year’s meeting, and then suggest five other things to keep a climate-related eye on.

1. Enough with the oil, coal and gas already

Well, there was fun news when the sole US event saw an executive from coal giant Peabody argue for “clean coal”. The audience and many then walked out.

The major headline was the launch of the “, led by the UK and Canada, with pledges by Mexico, New Zealand, Denmark and Angola, among others – 20 countries in all. This alliance pledged to phase out all coal-fired electricity (except that with Carbon Capture and Storage), although without a clear target date. Sceptics rightly point out that and will continue to burn other fossil fuels.

This last point stuck in the craw of Friends of the Earth UK, who pointed out that the UK is simultaneously giving the green light to fracking, a whole new fossil fuel industry which, despite the gas industry’s claims, is .

2. Sharpen the teeth of the pledges

Didn’t happen (that sound is the authors sighing smugly but wearily). The issue “flared up”, and was defused with a promise of a .

3. Show us the money

Also didn’t happen. Indeed, climate finance caused such conflict that things and cause the talks to collapse entirely. The poorer countries wanted to know what they will get and when (to help with planning). According to a Guardian report, the richer countries professed that they were .

4. Clarify the rules

This also didn’t happen (there’s a pattern emerging, no?). There is now what characterises as a

skeleton: a set of headings relating to how action on emissions is reported and monitored. Nations have also fleshed this out with suggested detailed texts, but these are often contradictory and will need to be resolved next year.

There will now be to make sure the Paris rule book gets finished on time.

5. Fantasy technologies are exposed as delusions

Nope. While the Powering Past Coal people pledged, were held over a three-day period. Meanwhile other issues, such as oceans, adaptation, and loss and damage have “.

Can the world really power past coal? Rudmer Zwerver / shutterstock

What next?

Everyone has their own opinions on , in the lead up to COP24 in Poland.

There will be the “Talanoa dialogue” – named after a traditional word used in Fiji and the Pacific to reflect a – around how everyone is doing on their long-term commitments. Meanwhile, next September will see the launch of an on what would need to be done to limit global warming to 1.5℃ (hint: change some laws – primarily laws of physics).

Five things to watch for in the coming year

But there is life beyond the official UNFCCC process. Here are five things to watch for:

a) Will US states and cities put their money where their mouths are? As part of “”, 20 US states, more than 50 of its largest cities and more than 60 of its biggest businesses . If this materialises, it could negate Trump’s “fossil fuels forever” strategy.

b) What happens with the EU? The German chancellor, Angela Merkel – criticised by George Monbiot as “” due to a series of industry-friendly interventions – has to reform the much-criticised EU Emissions Trading Scheme. At the same time, European strategy may be compromised – not only by Brexit, but by the vacuum of a of German leadership. Meanwhile, will the score big wins?

c) China (of course) The Chinese didn’t make on their own emissions trading scheme at Bonn, but . Meanwhile, an is pushing for no new coal plants to be approved, alongside a . China, it seems, is .

d) Coal’s death spiral With encouragement from , more from coal, , with renewables increasing their market share (from a very low baseline). The announcements from the Powering Past Coal Alliance might help nudge this further.

e) Physical impacts Emissions , after a reported plateau. The Arctic faster than , and the .

So we can no doubt expect to see more articles which ask how we can make the most of things if indeed “” to save the world from climate change.

, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, and , Professor of International Politics,

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